La Crisis Democrática Global: Resiliencia, Innovación y Renovación del contrato social en el Siglo XXI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51660/Palabras clave:
Crisis democrática, resiliencia institucional, democracia deliberativa, participación cívica, legitimidad política, contrato social, asambleas ciudadanasResumen
Objetivo. Analizar las dimensiones multidimensionales de la crisis democrática contemporánea, examinar mecanismos de resiliencia institucional, innovaciones participativas, desafíos tecnológicos emergentes y estrategias de renovación del contrato social que fortalecen las democracias en el contexto global actual.
Metodología. Se realizó una revisión sistemática de literatura académica reciente (2020-2025) y análisis empírico con datos de fuentes internacionales reconocidas: V-Dem Database versión 15, Electoral Integrity Project, OECD Trust Surveys, LATINNO Database, Freedom House Reports y World Values Survey. Se empleó metodología mixta combinando análisis cuantitativo de tendencias democráticas globales en 179 países, estudio cualitativo de casos de asambleas ciudadanas y evaluación de innovaciones participativas. La cobertura temporal incluye principalmente 2020-2025 con líneas base históricas desde 1990.
Resultados. La investigación evidencia una crisis democrática sistémica caracterizada por: declive sostenido en confianza política (desplome en 36 democracias consolidadas), deterioro de integridad electoral en 33 de 62 países evaluados en 2024, incremento de polarización afectiva en 25% de naciones, y erosión gradual de normas democráticas mediante mecanismos legales. Sin embargo, se identifican capacidades de resiliencia mensurables: más de 300 procesos deliberativos globales involucran a millones de ciudadanos; los procesos institucionalizados crecieron de 22 a 41 casos entre 2020-2023; países con mayor resiliencia institucional muestran mejor desempeño frente al deterioro; innovaciones participativas en América Latina documentan efectividad incluso en sociedades polarizadas.
Conclusión. La sostenibilidad democrática del siglo XXI requiere una transformación sistémica integral que articule seis dimensiones: fortalecimiento de resiliencia institucional, implementación de innovaciones participativas escalables, gobernanza democrática de tecnologías emergentes, capacidades para gobernanza ambiental participativa, inclusión de nuevas generaciones, y políticas redistributivas. Las democracias con mayor resiliencia institucional y comprometidas con la renovación del contrato social mediante procesos participativos ofrecen vías efectivas para restaurar legitimidad y adaptabilidad democrática frente a los desafíos complejos del siglo XXI.
Descargas
Referencias
Bienstman, S. (2023). Does inequality erode political trust? Frontiers in Political Science, 5, Article 1197317. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2023.1197317
Bienstman, S. (2024). Inequality, external efficacy and political trust. European Journal of Political Research, 63(2), 547-568. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12611
Boese, V. A., Lundstedt, M., Morrison, K., Sato, Y., & Lindberg, S. I. (2021). How democracies prevail: Democratic resilience as a two-stage process. Democratization, 28(5), 885–907. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1891413
Brennan Center for Justice. (2025, March 5). Gauging the AI threat to free and fair elections. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/gauging-ai-threat-free-and-fair-elections
Bueno, N. S., & Dunning, T. (2025). Race, inequality, and political trust in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 67(1), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2024.41
Caluwaerts, D. (2023). Deliberation and polarization: A multi-disciplinary review. Frontiers in Political Science, 5, Article 1127372. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2023.1127372
Caluwaerts, D., & Helbling, M. (2025). Does political polarisation undermine democratic accountability? West European Politics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2025.2543600
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2025, April 27). Democratic recovery after significant backsliding: Emergent lessons. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/04/democratic-recovery-after-significant-backsliding
CIRCLE. (2024). Young people and the 2024 election: Barriers, issues, economy. Tufts University, Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life. https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2024-poll-barriers-issues-economy
Climate Citizens' Assemblies Project. (2020). Climate citizens' assemblies: Aiming for impact, by learning together. https://www.cca-project.org
Council of Europe. (2024). Young people's participation in the 2024 European elections. Partnership between the European Commission and the Council of Europe in the field of Youth. https://pjp-eu.coe.int
Croissant, A., & Lott, L. (2025). Democratic resilience in the twenty-first century: Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis. Political Studies. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177/00323217251345779
Curato, N., Dryzek, J. S., Ercan, S. A., Hendriks, C. M., & Niemeyer, S. (2017). Twelve key findings in deliberative democracy research. Daedalus, 146(3), 28–38. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00444
Edelman. (2024). 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer global report. Edelman Trust Institute. https://www.edelman.com/trust
Electoral Integrity Project & International IDEA. (2025). Review of the 2024 super-cycle year of elections: Trends, challenges and opportunities. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. https://www.idea.int/publications
European Parliament. (2024, November 21). Enforcing the Digital Services Act: State of play. European Parliamentary Research Service. https://epthinktank.eu/2024/11/21/enforcing-the-digital-services-act-state-of-play/
Freedom House. (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: The uphill battle to safeguard rights. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2025
Friedrich Naumann Foundation. (2025, March 11). Artificial intelligence and electoral disinformation. https://www.freiheit.org/argentina-brazil-paraguay-and-uruguay/artificial-intelligence-and-electoral-disinformation
Garnett, H. A., & James, T. (2025). Electoral Integrity Global Report 2025. Electoral Integrity Project. https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com
International IDEA. (2025a, November 26). What have we learned about AI in elections? https://www.idea.int/news/what-have-we-learned-about-ai-elections
International IDEA. (2025b). The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the move. https://www.idea.int/publications
Jin, S. (2024). Why economic inequality undermines political trust. Public Opinion Quarterly, 88(2), 337-362. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad052
KNOCA. (2022, September 20). Introducing climate assemblies. Knowledge Network on Climate Assemblies. https://knoca.eu/climate-assemblies
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How democracies die. Crown Publishing Group.
Lindberg, S. I. (Ed.). (2025). V-Dem Democracy Report 2025: State of the world 2024—25 years of autocratization. Varieties of Democracy Institute, University of Gothenburg. https://www.v-dem.net
Lorenzoni, I. (2025). A review of National Citizens' Climate Assemblies. Climate Policy. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2449416
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024). OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions – 2024 results. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9a20554b-en
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2025a). Government at a Glance 2025: Levels of trust in public institutions. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/gov/government-at-a-glance-2025.htm
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2025b). Government at a Glance 2025: Drivers of trust in public institutions. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/gov/government-at-a-glance-2025.htm
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. (2024). AI-generated disinformation in the context of elections. OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. https://www.osce.org/odihr/582631
OIDP. (2024). Citizens' assembly & deliberative processes: Peer learning note. International Observatory on Participatory Democracy. https://www.oidp.net
Pogrebinschi, T. (2020). LATINNO: Innovations for democracy in Latin America. WZB Berlin Social Science Center. https://www.latinno.net
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2024). World Social Report: Trust in a changing world—Social cohesion and sustainable development. United Nations. https://social.desa.un.org
World Values Survey Association. (2024). WVS Database. https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org
Youth Democracy Cohort. (2024). Youth political participation: Policy and literature review 1980-2024. https://youthdemocracycohort.com
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Alberto Rojas Rios (Autor/a)

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.