Evaluations of government performance and retrospective voting: episodes of incumbency and anti-incumbency in Colombia between 2002 and 2022

Abstract

Objective. To describe the processes of vote distribution in the Colombian presidential elections between 2002 and 2022, approximating a recognition of the presence or absence of episodes of incumbency or anti-incumbency as a function of the average levels of approval and disapproval of the outgoing governments during each electoral process. Methodology. A qualitative case analysis was developed based on the interpretation in time series of the values reported in the competitiveness and total volatility indexes, in contrast with the mean values on the perception of government performance. Results. It was possible to verify, in dialogue with different analytical readings, that in Colombia during the last two decades there has been a latent balance between episodes of alternation and continuity, estimating that in cases where vote variations extend over limits higher or lower than the mean values of total volatility, there tends to be an association between the results with the confluence of incumbency or anti-incumbency environments.